نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی عمران، مدیریت ساخت، داننشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد تفت
2 دانشیار، گروه عمران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد مشهد
عنوان مقاله [English]
Financial risks of a project are arises from financial uncertainties which are quite difficult to evaluate and management. Market fluctuations occurred in the short or long periods is the main reason for these correlated uncertainties. In this paper, a novel model is presented for estimating the financial risk of the construction industry. For this purpose, economic conditions of the Iran’s construction industry are evaluated and simulated. First, the economic conditions of construction projects are evaluated in Iran by identifying the factors that created these risks. Then a new functional is proposed for determining the financial risk of construction industry. Finally, the proposed functional is evaluated by the Monte Carlo simulation scheme. According to the analysis of economic conditions, an appropriate domain could be suggested for the bid multiplier so that the probability of successful financial management of the projects increases. These procedure could be used for other type of projects.