نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 دانشجوی دکتری/دانشگاه شمال
2 گروه حمل ونقل، دانشکده عمران، دانشگاه شمال، آمل، ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
Today, road transport is practically the most common mode of transport. Freight transport statistics also show that freight vehicles play an important role in the transportation industry. One of the topics raised in the categories of planning, transportation safety syncing safety planning with transport planning is and its components predict accidents and the macro level can be such that at the stage of planning, transport forecast,the number of accedents also take place. The purpose of the present study is to obtain and present a mathematical model to predict the number of road traffic accidents simultaneously with transportation planning stages. In this paper a macro econimic model of predicting road traffic accidents using genetic programing method.In this regard, variable related to each of stages of transportation planning including trip production,trip distribution, type of commodity and type of vehicles separation were selected and models were obtained for each of the four group.from these model,the optimal model is selected based on minimum error and highest R. For this purpose, data from 2011 to 2014 were used as baseline statistics and data from 2015 for model validation. Based on the present studies, among the models corresponding to the transport planning stages, the model based on travel production variables gives the best prediction of the surgical accident of the goods and therefore the travel production parameters are the most appropriate set of variables for modelling.