نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشکده صنعت و معدن، دانشگاه یاسوج، چرام 59836 - 75761 ، ایران.
2 دانشکده صنعت و معدن، دانشگاه یاسوج، چرام 59836-75761، ایران.
3 دپارتمان مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست، دانشکده مهندسی و علوم طبیعی، دانشگاه ایسلند، ریکیاویک، ایسلند& مرکز مطالعات مهندسی زلزله، سلفوس، ایسلند.
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
In seismic hazard assessment, selection of an appropriate ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) is challenging. These models and their weights which are used in a logic tree framework to consider the epistemic uncertainty, strongly affect the seismic hazard results. In this regard, evaluating their applicability against the observed ground motions for a region under study can result in finding the most appropriate GMPE and also reducing the epistemic uncertainty. Thus, the goal of this study is to rank different GMPEs using the data-driven ranking methods for the Zagros seismotectonic province. For this purpose, three data-driven ranking methods including the log likelihood, Euclidean distance and deviance information criterion (DIC) methods were evaluated based on a simulated dataset. The results identify the DIC as the most appropriate ranking method. Then, different local, regional and worldwide candidate GMPEs were ranked using the DIC method for the Zagros seismotectonic province. For the purpose of ranking, we used a dataset that include 457 records from 99 earthquake events recorded in the Zagros seismotectonic province. The results have been calculated at seven oscillator periods. Then, the candidate GMPEs were ranked and the most appropriate GMPEs were selected. The results show the better performance of the local GMPEs compared to the regional and worldwide models. Moreover, it was concluded that the worldwide GMPEs are not suitable to use for seismic hazard assessment in the Zagros region.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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